DNA Statistical Conclusions: An Example
The following extract was taken from an article showing how a person may be
identified (almost unequivocally) through his DNA.
The Extract is interesting in its own right but if you prefer not to read it at present
skip it over and go to the Second Paragraph
A DNA Profile: The 13 CODIS STR loci
As part of his training and proficiency testing for DNA Profile analysis of STR (Short Tandem Repeat) Polymorphisms, Forensic Scientist and DNA Analyst Bob Blackett created a DNA profile on his own DNA. Here is Bob's DNA Profile for the 13 core Genetic Loci of the United States national database, CODIS (Combined DNA Index System):
Locus D3S1358 vWA FGA D8S1179 D21S11 D18S51 D5S818
Genotype 15, 18 16, 16 19, 24 12, 13 29, 31 12, 13 11, 13
Frequency 8.2% 4.4% 1.7% 9.9% 2.3% 4.3% 13%
Locus D13S317 D7S820 D16S539 THO1 TPOX CSF1PO AMEL
Genotype 11, 11 10, 10 11, 11 9, 9.3 8, 8 11,11 X Y
Frequency 1.2% 6.3% 9.5% 9.6% 3.52% 7.2% (Male)
For each genetic locus, Bob has determined his "genotype", and the expected frequency of his genotype at each locus in a representative population sample. For example, at the genetic locus known as "D3S1358", Bob has the genotype of "15, 18". This genotype is shared by about 8.2% of the population. By combining the frequency information for all 13 CODIS loci, Bob can calculate that the frequency of his profile would be 1 in 7.7 quadrillion Caucasians (1 in 7.7 times 10 to the 15th power!
In Bob's forensic DNA work, he often compares the DNA profile of biological evidence from a crime scene with a known reference sample from a victim or suspect. If any two samples have matching genotypes at all 13 CODIS loci, it is a virtual certainty that the two DNA samples came from the same individual (or an identical twin).
Implications of the Figures
The point is that the STATISTICAL CERTAINTY is derived from common
traits shared by a great many people. The least common DNA trait for instance in the subject above
was Genotype 11 at Locus D13S317 shared with 1.2% of the population or more than
200,000 people. The other traits mentioned and considered significant are found in millions or
tens of millions of other cases yet when considered as PART OF ONE WHOLE
they are ascribed great relevance.
Even so by taking all these common features as a whole and looking for someone
who fits ALL of them we can be quite certain that there is only one person in existence (unless the subject has an identical twin)
who can fit all of them.
Murder cases, inheritance cases, bequeathment (the wife becoming a legal widow and able to remarry),
and so on are all determined by figures such as the above.
The Relevance to Brit-Am
Brit-Am Proofs point to distinguishing markers that are not shared by
millions, thousands, or hundreds of other potential candidates but rather
at the most by three of four others who nearly always DO NOT POSSESS
any of the other hundred or so markers we use for co-relation.
OUR PROOFS ARE STRONGER!
In the past we used the following
[For the background discussion see
#7. Letter from Rabbi Ullman and Reply by Yair Davidiy]
A man owned a business and sent one of his employees to meet
a person. He described the person to be met as tall, big, red-haired, bespectacled,
named John Smith, and standing on a particular street corner .
The employee returned after a day and said the person could not be found. He elaborated:
"There are many tall, big men in the world. Many people have red hair. John Smith is a common name.
A lot of people stand on street corners. The criteria were too general and could have fitted anyone".
His employer was justifiably irritated. The directions were to find somebody who fit all of the criteria
not just one of them. If the directions had have been followed no misunderstanding would have occurred.
So too, our criteria when taken individually in isolation from the other points may seem rather too
general and indefinite. The strength of what we say is largely dependent on the compound effect.
In our Biblical Proofs List on the website we have ca 114 proofs listed:
The list is actually incomplete but even as it stands out of these 121 Biblical Proofs I doubt if one could take
ANY TWO out of the first 114 points and find them applicable to any other group other than the ones Brit-Am identifies.
This to my mind is proof. And we do not rely just on any two points but ALL 114 taken together
in addition to Rabbinical and Secular-Historical sources.
Commentaries on the Book of Obadiah support Brit-Am.
Our interpretation of Biblical passages as referring to the Lost Ten Tribes is supported
by all the early sources, as found in the Talmud, Midrash, Zohar, etc.
Later works that speak of the Last Days and of the role of the Messiah son of Joseph (leader of the Lost Tribes)
and what he represents also conform with Brit-Am beliefs concerning the identity of Lost Israel today.
SECULAR SOURCES in the fields of history, archaeology, linguistics, etc, provide an academically acceptable framework
that is realistic.
Even a somewhat prosaic seemingly flippant proof such as the
"Drunkards of Ephraim" is important since it eliminates
all Moslem Nations (who do not drink alcohol) and raises the likelihood
of "Anglo" peoples who for better or for worse are alcoholic consumers.
This fact increases the statistical probability of the "Anglo" nations.
It is not a strong proof in itself but it is of positive value when considered together
with all the other proofs.
For a list of Brit-Am Biblical Proofs Accompanied by a detailed Explanation of Each Point
Another example is that the Bible says that the Lost Ten Tribes in the End Times
will be dwelling at the "ends of the earth" or geographical extremities such
as North America, British Isles, Scandinavia, France, South Africa,
Australia, and Nealand.
There are however other "ends" that may also qualify such as Argentina,
Japan, Siberia, maybe India, and other regions.
Even so there "OTHER" candidates do not meet most of the other proofs
needed to qualify such as those listed below: The people we identify ARE
of the one same family and on this point alone can already say that any evidence applying
to one member of the family also applies to the family as a whole.
BRIT-AM LIST OF BIBLICAL PROOFS
[A group of peoples must be located that fit ALL of the criteria]
1. Ends of the Earth: Isaiah 24:16, 26:15, 41:8-9 43:6 49:6
2. Isles Isaiah 24:15 49:6 60:9 Jeremiah 31: 9-10
3. Thighs, Peninsulas, and Coasts: Jeremiah 31:8
4. Tarshish (Atlantic Ocean Area) Isaiah 60:9
5. Western Location: Isaiah 24:14, Hosea 1:10
6. Located to the Northwest of the Land of Israel: Isaiah 49:12
7. In the "North" Land: Jeremiah 3:18 31: 6-10
8. Australia ("Land of Sinim" Computer Codes) Isaiah 49:8
9. Best Places (Atziliyah) Isaiah 41: 9
10. Fires in the Isles referring to Celtic Britain Isaiah 24:15
11: Zarephath, meaning France and Britain, Obadiah 1:20
12. Dolmens showing Pathway of Migration Jeremiah 31:21
13. Many Waters (Several Oceans) Numbers 24:7
B. RECOGNIZABLE SYMBOLS
14. Bald-Headed Eagle (symbol of USA) Micah 1:16
15. Lion and Unicorn (Symbol of Britain) Numbers 24:7-9
C. HISTORICAL BEHAVIOR
16. Cyrus: Messiah son of Joseph (see "Joseph") Isaiah 44:28
17. Rule Over OTHER Peoples: Genesis 27:29 48:19 "A MULTITUDE OF NATIONS"
(Hebrew: "Malo HaGoyim" i.e. Complete the Peoples, Onkelos: = Rule over the nations),
18. Brit-Am Isaiah 42:6 49:8 Covenant of the People
19. Seafarers Isaiah 42:10
20. Be the Dominant World Power Numbers 24:7-9 Micah 5:7-9
21. Military Power: Deuteronomy 33:27 33:29 Jer. 51:20-21
22. The "police-man" (battle-ax) of the Almighty Zechariah 10:7
23. Defeat Edom (Germany and Europe) Ez. 25:14 Obad. 1:18
24. Light for the Gentiles (Genesis 12:2-3, 18:18-19, 22:18 24:4 Isaiah 42:1 42:6 Amos 6:15
25: Alcoholic Drunkards Isaiah 28:1, 3
14. Separate from Judah: Isaiah 11:12-13 49:21
15. Not known to Judah: Isaiah 49:13-14, 21. Hosea 1:7
16. Christianity: Jeremiah 31:6
17. Gomer: Linkage with European nations: Hosea chapter one
18. Numerous: Genesis 15:5, 22:17, 24:60, 32:12, Numbers 23:10, Isaiah 10:22, 24:16, 26:15 Hos.1:10
19. Agricultural Plenty: Gen 27:28 49:25 Deut 33:13-16 Hoshea 2:8
20. Mineral Resources Genesis 49:25 Deuteronomy 33:13, 15
21. GATE(s) OF YOUR ENEMIES (International Strategic Points) Genesis 22:17 24:60
22, 23, 24. Cush (India), Egypt, Chains in Slaves from Africa to be taken overseas to homeland: Isa. 44:28 also Isa 43:3 45:14
25. Ruled by Sons of David Jeremiah 33:22, 26
26. Headed by Kings Genesis 17:6, 16, 35:11
G. ANCESTRAL NAMES IN GENERAL
27. The name Hebrew (Western Celts were "Iberi"): Genesis 14:13 39:17 40:15 1:12 43:32 Jonah 1:9
28. Isaac: (Genesis 21:12 48:16). Scythians, Zohak, Ishkuza, Sacasson, Saxon.
29. Jacob: Isaiah 49:6 Tribes of Jacob: Union Jack, Yankee,
30. John "Bull (nickname for Britain): Deut 33:17 Jeremiah 31:18 "Aegel" (Angle) was a nickname for Ephraim
31-101. Seventy Tribal and Clan Names still used in historical studies and place-names
H. NATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
102. Nobility Principle associated with Ephraim (UK) Jer. 31:20
103. Representative Democracy associated with Manasseh (USA) Genesis 41:51
104. The name "America" from Machir firstborn of Manasseh. USA the major Capitalist nation and "Machir" denotes Principle of Sale.
105. Zebulon on the shores of the Sea (Gen 49:13) Sabulingoi (People of Zebulon) in Holland who do literally dwell on the sea-shores.
106. Numerous Other Proofs in Scritpure and Related Sources.
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